Good Evening,
Another day of slight gains on low volume. I still don’t trust it….
Stocks gain thanks to Best Buy, Dollar Tree
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.03% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 05/21/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.4178 | 16.3366 | 24.5953 | 33.4536 | 26.1585 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | -0.0176 | 0.2016 | 0.2007 | 0.0332 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.11% | +0.83% | +0.60% | +0.13% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.01% | +0.57% | +0.26% | -0.28% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | +0.78% | +0.42% | -0.81% | +0.04% |
| % Change year | +0.92% | +3.78% | +3.02% | -0.64% | +2.32% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.0536 | 22.1974 | 23.9261 | 25.3433 | 14.361 |
| $ Change | 0.0207 | 0.0658 | 0.0906 | 0.1105 | 0.0700 |
| % Change day | +0.12% | +0.30% | +0.38% | +0.44% | +0.49% |
| % Change week | +0.09% | +0.15% | +0.18% | +0.21% | +0.22% |
| % Change month | +0.18% | +0.16% | +0.13% | +0.11% | +0.08% |
| % Change year | +1.41% | +1.84% | +1.99% | +2.05% | +2.12% |
Here’s what the SPY looked like. The analysis is by Carl Swenlin:
“Price almost reached past horizontal resistance, but stopped short. Intraday, the PMO actually had a positive crossover its 10-EMA which would have generated a PMO BUY signal, but as price backed off at the end of the day, momentum slowed and prevented the crossover. It is thousandths of a point away from the crossover so if tomorrow we see any positive price movement accompanied by little downward pressure that signal should trigger. Volume faded again today.”
Conclusion:“We did get some follow-through on yesterday’s small rally, but as soon as price reached resistance it was turned away. The indicators are starting to look somewhat positive, but not enough. All of this doesn’t give us much confidence in the prospects of a breakout.”
I agree. Just a note, Carl is talking about several other indicators as well as the SPY chart shown above. Today’s S&P close of 1892.49 was again slightly out of the trading zone that we have been watching. However, a couple points on low volume doesn’t qualify as a solid breakout. Nevertheless, we will keep our eye on the charts. I fully expect the price to retreat from its current level. I do not believe it can rise significantly from this point. If I am wrong, it will be the most wrong I have ever been. We’ll wait and see. It could be said that this market has been in uncharted territory for the past three years which could explain why so many analysts are missing the mark, but that would only be an excuse. We simply must figure out what’s going on and deal with it. My stance until I am proven wrong is to remain defensive. That’s all for tonight. God bless and have a nice evening!
Scott
