08/16/2022

Good Afternoon, The latest catalyst to spur this rally was last weeks better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) reports showing inflation slowing just a bit. These reports led investors to think that the rate of inflation might finally be peeking. This in turn led to optimism that the Fed might not have to be as aggressive with interest rate increases as they indicated in the last published Fed minutes. We will see about that. ...

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08/09/2022

Good Morning, I’d like to tell you that everything has changed and the market is now heading straight back up, but that’s just not that case. Have things improved? Yes. slightly. I do believe that the bottom of this bear market was established in the last month. So I have reinvested in equities both here and on the street with a reasonable confidence that the lows reached in the last month will not be broken. However, I do believe ...

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05/02/2022

Good Evening, Wow, I just got done checking our Facebook page….It appears that there are other services that are spending as much of their time writing about us as they are writing about their own allocation. Their outlining every move we made and how wrong it was and how their allocation is the best. Here’s what I have to say about that. If their allocation is not better than ours so far this year it never will be. To date ...

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****Interfund Transfer****

Good Morning, It’s time to adjust our allocation. The new allocation is100/C. Please remember that this is the percentage of money that we have invested in each fund, not the money that is taken from your check and deposited into thrift. That deposit should always be 100% G Fund. That automatically protects your deposit in the event that it is made on a bad day for the market. The funds that accumulate in the G Fund are always picked up when ...

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07/26/2022

Good Afternoon, While everything remains the same there are a few things coming that could change the market landscape just a little. One of them is occurring at 2:00PM tomorrow. That is of course the policy announcement and press conference following the all important July meeting of the FOMC. There is little doubt that they will be hawkish and increase the interest rate by .075 to 1.00 points. Of course .001 is considered a point. Then there is also the ...

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07/19/2022

Good Morning, The market is up this morning, but I would remind you that it was up yesterday morning and you know what happened in the afternoon. It sold off! Currently socks remain in a trading zone while investors wait for resolution of the high inflation. Other issues such as the supply chain and interest rates ultimately end up at inflation. Meanwhile stocks continue to rise and fall in a wide but limited range. While it is possible that we ...

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07/12/2022

Good Evening, Nothing is really changing right now. It’s pretty much the same old song and dance. Inflation, interest rates, Covid, and the war in the Ukraine. In the end it all comes full circle to inflation and tomorrows CPI report will be our next chance to measure that. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. I think that ...

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07/05/2022

Good Afternoon, The market continues to be pressured by threats of a recession which is defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth measured as GDP. Folks, I agree with several notable analysts and brokers who insist we are already in a recession. To me it’s the same as when there was so much debate about whether we were in a bear market or not. The media was waiting for a decline from the previous high of the S&P ...

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06/28/2022

Good Afternoon, We remain mired in a bear market and looking at a possible recession. So, I’ll say it right up front. I’m not in a hurry to get back into equities. We’ve tried three times and we’ve failed three times thanks in a great part to the algorithm traders that faked us out all three times. We discussed that last week. So if you want to know more in detail about how they did it review last weeks blog. ...

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06/21/2022

Good Afternoon, Last week we got shelled out of equities again. This was the third time we entered the market based on our short term indicators. These were the same indicators that we had used to get back into the market after a sell offs for the past 30 years. So what gives??? I had to do quite a bit of work looking at more than a few charts but I eventually got to the bottom of what I think ...

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