Blog

03/25/14

Good Evening,

Our TSP funds came in mixed today as the talking heads announced that confidence is back at Wall Street. That was evident as money flowed into some select large cap stocks as well as several speculative names. Junk speculative stocks in the alternative fuels sector were once again red hot with names like PLUG, FCEL and BLDP leading the way.

When you chart all this action it becomes evident that seasoned traders are focusing on speculative stocks because that is one of the only areas where they can turn a profit in the current market. The big hedge funds are turning to the “oldie but goodies” such as GE and IBM. They are actually doing this for the same reasons. The large hedge fund managers feel that the market is topping and are positioning themselves in stocks that will hold up better in a downturn. They are doing this because they have to stay invested all the time. The smaller traders are chasing the speculative names as they are the only thing left that will still make money for them. They aren’t concerned about a downturn. When a dip comes they will sell and hold cash, but the folks invested in the major hedge funds expect to see their money invested in something all the time. Thus, the goal is the same for both. To make money. They only approach it in different ways. I said all that to make the point that the majority of the mid range stocks aren’t making significant gains. They are like hamsters on a tread mill. Running, but not really going anywhere. If you put all these things together, it signals a market that may be topping. Am I calling a top? No, I am saying that this is part of a topping process that may go on for weeks or months. As I said yesterday, I expect that this process will end when the FED money is reduced to the point that it can no longer artificially support the market. Of course both on the street and in TSP I will keep capital invested in the funds that have good charts. Sometimes those funds will be equity based and sometimes not. Don’t be fooled though, everyone is frustrated right now with the current yo-yo effect of the this market. And you know what? Nothing is going to change until we get a real correction. Then the same people that are saying that confidence has returned to Wall Street will be proclaiming that the sky is falling. That is the reason you stick with your charts and take only a passing interest in the news. Trading with emotion will kill you…..on to today’s results…

 

Optimism is back on Wall Street

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral, which reflects the market as a whole neutral. A better way of thinking of it for those who aren’t familiar with stock terms is to call it “on the fence”. It basically means that the stock or fund on the chart is in no mans land and could go either way. Most of the charts that I am looking at now are the same. Just food for thought. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. The I fund was the winner of the day at +1.09% and the S Fund tanked again at -0.10%. Our allocation is -1.68% for the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results: 

03/24/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3637 16.034 24.1085 34.5135 24.9784
$ Change 0.0027 0.0110 -0.1175 -0.4025 -0.0839
% Change day +0.02% +0.07% -0.49% -1.15% -0.33%
% Change week +0.02% +0.07% -0.49% -1.15% -0.33%
% Change month +0.15% -0.35% +0.00% -0.88% -3.57%
% Change year +0.54% +1.86% +0.98% +2.50% -2.29%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9194 21.9085 23.5835 24.9736 14.1327
$ Change -0.0155 -0.0603 -0.0868 -0.1098 -0.0704
% Change day -0.09% -0.27% -0.37% -0.44% -0.50%
% Change week -0.09% -0.27% -0.37% -0.44% -0.50%
% Change month -0.11% -0.60% -0.79% -0.92% -1.10%
% Change year +0.61% +0.52% +0.53% +0.56% +0.49%
Here’s what the S&P looked like today:
The S&P managed another gain on average volume today, but is still a little anemic with the PMO riding under its 20 EMA. We will need to see a positive crossover in the PMO to know that momentum has truly returned to this index.
0325
That’s all for today. With God’s help, we’ll keep chipping away until we turn a profit! Have a nice evening. See you all tomorrow. God bless,
Scott8-)

 

03/24/14

Good Evening,

Stocks dropped today, although there really wasn’t much in the way of earth shattering news…

 

Tech stocks tank but finish off their lows

 

 

The day’s selling left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. The S- Fund was ugly today with a loss of -1.05%. Could the weakness in small caps be signaling a change in the character of the market? We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. The I fund did manage a gain today so it is good that we still have some funds allocated there. Our TSP allocation is now -0.96% on the year. Of course, our fund on the street is still in the green thanks to precious metals and bonds! Here are the latest posted results: 

03/21/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.361 16.023 24.226 34.916 25.0623
$ Change 0.0009 0.0274 -0.0715 -0.1268 0.0660
% Change day +0.01% +0.17% -0.29% -0.36% +0.26%
% Change week +0.04% -0.43% +1.38% +0.94% +0.14%
% Change month +0.13% -0.42% +0.49% +0.27% -3.25%
% Change year +0.52% +1.79% +1.47% +3.70% -1.96%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9349 21.9688 23.6703 25.0834 14.2031
$ Change -0.0031 -0.0128 -0.0194 -0.0251 -0.0155
% Change day -0.02% -0.06% -0.08% -0.10% -0.11%
% Change week +0.21% +0.48% +0.60% +0.69% +0.76%
% Change month -0.02% -0.32% -0.42% -0.49% -0.61%
% Change year +0.70% +0.79% +0.90% +1.00% +0.99%
Now let’s read the tea leaves…..
We’ll take a look at the S-Fund today… The price broke beneath the rising wedge formation as noted with the top circle. The PMO already had a negative crossover on the 17th. Today’s dip below lower support was the fulfillment of this pattern. The question is how deep will it go? Right now it is stalled at lower resistance established at the March 1st low. Should it break below that, the next level of resistance would fall around the 81 level. As we have repeatedly discussed, we aren’t sure at what level of the FEDS artificial support that the resistance will give way to a larger correction. That noted, I would favor a bounce at this time as the FED is still buying 50 billion in bonds per month. Of course that’s just a guess. Nobody knows for sure when the levee will break. We just need to be ready in case it does. Trying to call the market top has cost the bears a lot of money for the past three years.
0324
RevShark (James DePorre) made some interesting comments that went along with my observations:

03/24/14 4:12 PM: Afternoon Comments

At was one of those days where you would be completely mislead about the action if you just looked at the DJIA. There was some carnage under the surface as biotechnology and momentum names were dumped with abandon. There wasn’t any clear catalyst for the selling but the momentum money tends to sell first and ask questions later.
What lead the market today, and helped to hold up the indices, were big cap names like PG, WMT, MCD and other big caps that are perceived as being defensive names that will hold up relative well in a weak market. That doesn’t mean they will go up but funds will part money in these names so they can stay invested and not worry about momentum selling.
What is most notable on my screens is how much worse the breadth is than the overall markets.  Overall breadth was a bit worse than 2 to 1 negative but on my screens it is closer to 10 to 1 negatives.  My screens are mostly comprised of high momentum stocks and speculative names that have lead the market since the first of the year.  Many of these stocks were taken out and shot although some did manage to bounce back a bit as the day progressed.
The pattern has been that the market shakes off this sort of selling and comes back very quickly but I’m not inclined to load up on longs when we have some many breakdowns in stocks that were recently leading.  We could easily see another V-shaped bounce but this action has a different feel to me today and I’m concerned about more downside action. The big money is obviously rotating and that is something we haven’t seen happen previously.
Even the best analysts, despite what some would claim, can’t predict the exact outcome of things to come. Don’t even listen to those that say they can. What I do and what the RevShark does is more like a windsock. We tell you the general direction that the winds blowing and when it might change. It’s up to you to be prepared and to react. With God’s help, that is always possible. Give Him the praise!!! That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott8-)

 

03/21/14

Good Evening,

The market started strong, but ended in the red today. As I say on a regular basis, I’m not a speculative trader, but a reactive trader. However, at the risk of sounding speculative, I will say that this sure seems like a market that’s topping…

 

Stocks slump at end of strong week

 

The week’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is now -0.75% for the year. There’s a whole lots of smoke, but very little fire in this market. Could we be topping????  Here are the latest posted results: 
03/20/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3601 15.9956 24.2975 35.0428 24.9963
$ Change 0.0008 -0.0053 0.1465 0.0749 -0.1295
% Change day +0.01% -0.03% +0.61% +0.21% -0.52%
% Change week +0.04% -0.60% +1.68% +1.31% -0.12%
% Change month +0.12% -0.59% +0.79% +0.64% -3.50%
% Change year +0.51% +1.61% +1.77% +4.08% -2.22%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.938 21.9816 23.6897 25.1085 14.2186
$ Change 0.0094 0.0237 0.0323 0.0391 0.0232
% Change day +0.06% +0.11% +0.14% +0.16% +0.16%
% Change week +0.23% +0.54% +0.68% +0.79% +0.87%
% Change month +0.00% -0.26% -0.34% -0.39% -0.50%
% Change year +0.72% +0.85% +0.98% +1.10% +1.10%

Most TSP participants just don’t have much in the way of gains this year. All we can do is take what the market is giving and right now it’s not giving much. It takes as much as it gives. So here’s how it looked today:
C-Fund;

The S&P Chart as that of the DOW continues to hit overhead resistance. In the case of this chart, the resistance is at the 1880 mark. I have annotated that as well as the trend line in blue. Notice the rising wedge pattern that is ready to execute. It will be forced to break one way or the other in the coming days. It is possible that it could break the lower resistance and continue to trade sideways. With the FED now reducing their bond buying program by another 15 Billion per month to 50 Billion Per Month, it is difficult to predict if there will be enough artificial support to keep the market trading sideways. My guess is that there will be, but no one knows for sure how much of a reduction in the Bond purchases will allow the market to actually correct deeper than 5 to 7 percent. What we can do is be cognizant of the fact that it could occur at any time that the charts predict a downturn as they are now. Be ready to react when that inevitable event comes. 
0321
The I fund continues to be in the worst shape of any of our charts. Should the market continue to drop, it would be the first of our funds to give us a sell sign. We will continue to watch closely and re-balance our investments if that happens. That’s all for this week. Have a nice weekend. Enjoy some basketball and forget about this market until Monday.
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

03/20/14

Good Evening,

We got a small bounce today. Now let’s see if we can get some follow through…

 

Stocks recover from Fed freak out

 

Today’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is now -0.95% for the year. Here are the latest posted results: 

03/19/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3593 16.0009 24.151 34.9679 25.1258
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0722 -0.1489 -0.2408 -0.2236
% Change day +0.01% -0.45% -0.61% -0.68% -0.88%
% Change week +0.03% -0.56% +1.07% +1.09% +0.39%
% Change month +0.12% -0.55% +0.18% +0.42% -3.00%
% Change year +0.51% +1.65% +1.16% +3.85% -1.72%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9286 21.9579 23.6574 25.0694 14.1954
$ Change -0.0274 -0.0880 -0.1200 -0.1462 -0.0933
% Change day -0.16% -0.40% -0.50% -0.58% -0.65%
% Change week +0.17% +0.43% +0.55% +0.63% +0.71%
% Change month -0.06% -0.37% -0.48% -0.54% -0.66%
% Change year +0.67% +0.74% +0.85% +0.95% +0.94%

This market is like a yo-yo. A lot of movement but not really going anywhere. 
Here’s what the S&P 500 (C-Fund) looked like today: 
A slight gain on average volume. Note that the PMO still has a negative crossover of its 20 EMA. This must improve to get a solid buy signal. It would also be nice if we had some separation of the between the 20 and 5 EMA’s. All in all, the index is still in good shape. Not a lot of damage done during this latest dip. The I Fund took the worst hit of the TSP Funds, but that probably means that it has the most room to run if this upside can continue.
0320
Nothing new to add. The charts are bent but not broken. We’ll continue to watch them all with a wary eye toward the I-Fund. That’ all for tonight. Have a nice evening. Enjoy the NCAA March Madness!
Oh yeah and Go Cats!!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

03/19/14

Good Evening,

Today was a day when nothing worked. Well, almost nothing… I had one bond fund that managed a gain… The FED hinted at an interest rate hike and traders hit the exits. The dip buyers did step in near the end of the day to take us off the lows. Perhaps tomorrow’s trading will give us some follow through on that buying…

 

Stocks slump on Yellen rate hike remark

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. The signals kind of reflect the market as a whole. It’s on the fence and ready to lean either way. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is -.025% on the year. Here are the latest posted results: 
03/18/14 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3584 16.0731 24.2999 35.2087 25.3494
$ Change 0.0009 0.0171 0.1749 0.4083 0.1649
% Change day +0.01% +0.11% +0.72% +1.17% +0.65%
% Change week +0.03% -0.11% +1.69% +1.79% +1.29%
% Change month +0.11% -0.10% +0.80% +1.11% -2.14%
% Change year +0.50% +2.11% +1.78% +4.57% -0.84%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.956 22.0459 23.7774 25.2156 14.2887
$ Change 0.0283 0.0918 0.1269 0.1565 0.0996
% Change day +0.17% +0.42% +0.54% +0.62% +0.70%
% Change week +0.33% +0.83% +1.06% +1.22% +1.37%
% Change month +0.10% +0.03% +0.03% +0.04% -0.01%
% Change year +0.83% +1.15% +1.36% +1.54% +1.60%

They will definitely slip after today’s results are posted. Here is what the selling looked like in the S&P 500:
0319
I believe the market will snap back, but either way, we will continue to watch the charts and react to the action that is before us. We knew it was going to be a year of repeatedly bouncing off of overhead resistance so none of this should surprise us. The real test will be when the FED money is all gone. According to Ms. Yellen that will be this fall. As I have always said, that’s where the rubber will meet the road. Continue to pray that God will guide our hand, that has been and always will be the source of our success. May He continue to bless your trades!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

03/18/14

Good Evening,

Traders were loading up today ahead of the FED meeting. Is that good for tomorrow?

 

Stocks up for 2nd straight day

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation in now -0.25% in 2014. Here are the latest posted results: 

03/18/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3584 16.0731 24.2999 35.2087 25.3494
$ Change 0.0009 0.0171 0.1749 0.4083 0.1649
% Change day +0.01% +0.11% +0.72% +1.17% +0.65%
% Change week +0.03% -0.11% +1.69% +1.79% +1.29%
% Change month +0.11% -0.10% +0.80% +1.11% -2.14%
% Change year +0.50% +2.11% +1.78% +4.57% -0.84%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.956 22.0459 23.7774 25.2156 14.2887
$ Change 0.0283 0.0918 0.1269 0.1565 0.0996
% Change day +0.17% +0.42% +0.54% +0.62% +0.70%
% Change week +0.33% +0.83% +1.06% +1.22% +1.37%
% Change month +0.10% +0.03% +0.03% +0.04% -0.01%
% Change year +0.83% +1.15% +1.36% +1.54% +1.60%

The C Fund chart for the day:
The support at 185 has held and has produced a nice rally. Another less accelerated rising trend line has been set, and a line drawn across the rising tops delineates a rising trend channel. Volume is still very weak.
We’ve had nice gains for two days in a row. Hopefully, it will continue into tomorrow and we can get back into the green. (Just a note for those of you that are considering our program on the street after retirement. We have never been out of the profit range in that fund as we have several alternative investments available when the market takes a dip.) Things are looking good for now and I don’t expect tomorrow’s FED announcement to change anything. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

03/17/14

Good Evening,

We had our anticipated bounce today. Now let’s see if we can get some follow though… 

 

Dow rises 180 points, snaps losing streak

 

The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is -1.86% so far in 2014. That does not include today’s big gain. Here are the latest posted results: 
03/14/14  
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3548 16.0915 23.8951 34.5906 25.0273
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0027 -0.0672 0.1150 -0.0580
% Change day +0.01% -0.02% -0.28% +0.33% -0.23%
% Change week +0.04% +0.62% -1.91% -1.82% -3.07%
% Change month +0.09% +0.01% -0.88% -0.66% -3.38%
% Change year +0.47% +2.22% +0.08% +2.73% -2.10%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.8998 21.8642 23.5289 24.9127 14.0958
$ Change -0.0053 -0.0184 -0.0233 -0.0259 -0.0167
% Change day -0.03% -0.08% -0.10% -0.10% -0.12%
% Change week -0.37% -1.11% -1.42% -1.64% -1.88%
% Change month -0.23% -0.80% -1.02% -1.17% -1.36%
% Change year +0.49% +0.31% +0.30% +0.32% +0.23%
The I fund was the winner today. That’s the reason we are still in it. The C fund finished extremely strong as well. Here’s what it looked like:
There was a substantial contraction of volume, indicating a pronounced lack of credibility regarding the rally.
The volume noted above is a good reason why you can’t put total trust in this uptrend. Yes it is still in tact. Yes it could go on, but you should also be ready to switch to defense at any time. The lack of volume favors the down side. As I have repeatedly said, this market will be on the fence for the foreseeable future. For now though, all is well. May God continue to bless your trades! Have a great evening,
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

03/13/14

Good Evening,

The bears gained the upper hand today with a triple digit sell off. The Bulls did manage a small push into the close, but it wasn’t much. The excuses for the selling were the economic news out of China and the ongoing standoff in the Ukraine.

 

Dow falls nearly 250 points

 

The day’s sell off left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. Our allocation is -0.61% on the year. Here are the latest posted results: 
03/12/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.353 16.0436 24.2427 34.9124 25.4441
$ Change 0.0008 0.0330 0.0138 0.1080 -0.2475
% Change day +0.01% +0.21% +0.06% +0.31% -0.96%
% Change week +0.03% +0.32% -0.49% -0.91% -1.45%
% Change month +0.07% -0.29% +0.56% +0.26% -1.77%
% Change year +0.46% +1.92% +1.54% +3.69% -0.47%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9428 22.0204 23.7425 25.1713 14.2627
$ Change -0.0026 -0.0200 -0.0260 -0.0294 -0.0211
% Change day -0.02% -0.09% -0.11% -0.12% -0.15%
% Change week -0.12% -0.41% -0.53% -0.62% -0.72%
% Change month +0.02% -0.09% -0.12% -0.14% -0.19%
% Change year +0.75% +1.03% +1.21% +1.36% +1.42%
Here is today’s S&P 500: I’ve been having a lot of trouble with the charts since my charting service merged with StockCharts.com.  Anyway here it is:
0313
Here’s Carl Swenlin’s analysis:
The support line was penetrated slightly, but it held. Volume expanded considerably, as we would expect.
You may have noticed he is now using the SPY and not the SPX. It is the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) version of the SPX. Just add a zero onto the end of the prices and you’ll have pretty much the same thing as the index (180.0 vs 1800).
We mentioned the last several days that the ascending wedge patterns such as the one we have above usually break downward. I noted that with yesterday’s action that this might be one of the rare cases when it did not. That chance did not come to fruition and the the pattern indeed executed to the downside. Of course, we still have the high probability of a V shaped bounce so we will not hit the eject button just yet. However, in normal circumstances we would give a downside target in the 1800 range for this dip. We will see. Intermediate term indicators still favor more decline.
You can judge for yourselves. These are but a few of the charts I look at on a daily basis. I will continue to follow the action before me and react to it as it unfolds. I never make investment decisions on what I think is going to happen. I only make them on what I see happening on the charts before me. It is not wise to base your decisions on prognostication. They have a term for that. I think it is called gambling… This is a difficult market right now to be sure, but with God’s help we will work through this as we always have. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott 8-)

 

03/12/14

Good Evening,

Well the thrift funds were kind of flat today, but things were different. Two things to be precise. #1 The action in underlying stocks was better. A lot of the leaders such as TSLA and SCTY made nice reversals and closed well. #2 Instead of closing poorly the major indices closed strongly, most at their highs for the day. #3 Did I say there was a #3? Guess not, but I’m adding one anyway. The Nasdaq was in the green all day. Why is this important? The Nasdaq in most cases is an early indicator of the overall direction that the market will take. Its strong close bodes well for the short term trend. #4 Guess I’ll add a #4 as well….The quick reversal fits the pattern of what has happened for the past three years which also bodes well for the short term. I’m not sure if it’s all the cheap FED money or computer trading that has caused this phenomena. I would still like to think that things will return to pre-2009 normal, but I’m beginning to think that this could be the new norm. We really won’t know for sure until the FED money dries up. Either way, I’ve got a set of indicators that will work in a market that is trading in both manners, so I’ll just keep reading my charts. If the market does return to pre-2009 form, I’ll be ready. But I’ll bet that in that instance a lot of people will be lost. It appears that they have become so accustomed to trading in this manner that they won’t be able to adapt to the change. After all, what they are doing now is easy– buy it and hold it.  The good traders are the ones who will adapt, improvise and overcome…

 

Wall Street shrugs as global markets sink

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. Our new allocation as of the close of business today will be 36/C, 42/S, 22/I. It is currently -0.37% for the year. Here are the latest posted results: 
03/11/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3522 16.0106 24.2289 34.8044 25.6916
$ Change 0.0009 0.0102 -0.1228 -0.2919 0.0167
% Change day +0.01% +0.06% -0.50% -0.83% +0.07%
% Change week +0.03% +0.11% -0.54% -1.21% -0.49%
% Change month +0.07% -0.49% +0.50% -0.05% -0.82%
% Change year +0.46% +1.71% +1.48% +3.37% +0.50%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9454 22.0404 23.7685 25.2007 14.2838
$ Change -0.0125 -0.0433 -0.0620 -0.0782 -0.0494
% Change day -0.07% -0.20% -0.26% -0.31% -0.34%
% Change week -0.10% -0.32% -0.42% -0.50% -0.57%
% Change month +0.04% +0.00% -0.01% -0.02% -0.04%
% Change year +0.77% +1.12% +1.32% +1.48% +1.57%
The I Fund has been slacking some lately so I’ve reallocated some of its funds elsewhere.
Here’s today’s S&P chart:
Today’s rebound kept the price within the wedge, but the other factors that I mentioned earlier in this post make me believe that this may be one of those rare cases when the pattern breaks up instead of down. We’ll know in a few days if my analysis is correct. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades. Have a nice evening!  
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

 

 

03/10/14

Good Evening,

We had our second off day in a row as traders decided to focus on international economic issues today. Many people are asking me if I think the market is topping. Most of you know that I start by saying I’m not in the business of speculation. I am a reactive trader that uses technical analysis to make decisions on the action that is before me.  However, I will say that topping is a process. Markets don’t just fall apart in one day. Yes I know about the flash crash and 911, but as a general rule they don’t. For us it’s plain and simple, we stick with the trend and build up a pad of gains to protect us when the inevitable downturn comes. If we stay disciplined and watch our charts we will know when that time comes and move our money into defensive funds as we have done so many times before…

 

Markets hit pause as investors watch Asia

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 28/C, 34/S, 38/I. Our allocation is +0.39% on the year. Here are the latest posted results: 

03/07/14  
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.3486 15.9926 24.3614 35.2319 25.819
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0392 0.0151 -0.0323 -0.1686
% Change day +0.01% -0.24% +0.06% -0.09% -0.65%
% Change week +0.04% -0.60% +1.05% +1.18% -0.32%
% Change month +0.04% -0.60% +1.05% +1.18% -0.32%
% Change year +0.43% +1.59% +2.04% +4.64% +1.00%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.9625 22.1102 23.8689 25.3273 14.3655
$ Change -0.0065 -0.0237 -0.0321 -0.0389 -0.0257
% Change day -0.04% -0.11% -0.13% -0.15% -0.18%
% Change week +0.14% +0.32% +0.41% +0.48% +0.53%
% Change month +0.14% +0.32% +0.41% +0.48% +0.53%
% Change year +0.87% +1.44% +1.75% +1.99% +2.15%

Here’s today’s chart for the C-Fund:
The rising wedge remains the most dominant short-term feature on the chart. Note that volume contracted quite a bit.

Here’s a bonus today for you more advanced chart readers. My personal chart…
0310
Not to worry you, but that rising wedge formation usually resolves downward so be prepared if it does. Watch the charts closely to ensure that you don’t get out of equities until you have to. Remember the FED is still pumping money into the system, so a V-shaped bounce would be likely and when that occurs, it’s best not to jump out too quickly. We must also be aware of the fact that as the FED money is reduced, the event of a V-Shaped bounce is also less likely. If that becomes the case, it will be best to move to defensive Funds as soon as possible. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades. If put Him first He will never let you down! Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott 8-)