Blog

01/07/14

Good Evening,

At last a day of solid gains in 2014. Praise the Lord, Hallelujah! May He give us many more.

Are the bulls back? S&P 500, Nasdaq notch first gains of the year

The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It is -1.19% for 2014 and can be tracked on the Auto Tracker Section at TSPTALK.com under the screen name KyFan1.

The bottom line is this: Regardless of what things look like on a short term basis, we are still in a solid uptrend and you never fight the trend. We may adjust our allocations within equities, but we will not exit equities until the charts turn over. Right now the 5 and the 20 EMA are solidly above the 50 EMA which is solidly above the 200 EMA telling us that we are still heading up. The other three indicators that our group watches also have strong buy signals. When I use the term “turn over” or “upside down” I am referring to the shorter EMA’s being on the bottom showing that a chart is trending down. That’s when the highs are lower and the lows are lower. That allows us to overlook the day to day market volatility and see whether we are heading up or down. In very general terms that’s charting. Of course it takes a lot of experience to look at all of the indicators to know exactly when to exit or enter the market. Also worth noting is that there are many patterns such as bull flag and cup and saucer that indicate if a chart is going up or down, but as far as general charting goes, you can do better than average using just the EMA’s. Well that’s enough technical analysis for tonight, just know that the more you do it the better it gets. It just takes experience. That’s all for tonight. Remember, it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep!
May God continue to bless you trades.
Scott8-)

01/06/14

Good Evening, A third negative day in row. However, there has been no serious damage so far to the charts and the action to this point should only be considered a healthy pullback after a nice run.

Stocks start the week with modest losses

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, and F-Sell. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It is -0.75% on the year so far.

There is no serious damage to the S&P index just yet. Someday it will continue down and several people will proclaim that they were right. However, they will fail to mention the last dozen times they attempted to call the top and were wrong. It’s best to stay away from anyone that claims that they can call the top. Those same people probably claim to know when the rapture is coming as well and we all know what scripture says about that. The bottom line is this: Calling the top or the bottom of a market is pure luck. If you don’t think so, then watch to see how many people are able to do it twice. I’ve never seen that happen. No, we’ll continue to watch our charts, which will tell us when to sell and it will take a lot more of downturn than this before that happens. No guessing here! All that said, I don’t really expect anything much to happen one way or the other ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Lets all hope that I am wrong and we are pleasantly surprised. It is possible that the release of the FED minutes from December could jolt things a bit, but other than that I don’t see much positive between now and Friday! Don’t forget to keep praying for God’s guidance of our group. May He continue to bless your investments!

Scott8-)

01/03/14

Good Evening,

A mixed day today. I would have preferred to see it go up at least a little, but in the grand scheme of things it’s meaningless. The real trading starts Monday when everyone gets back to work…

Stocks off to a lackluster start in 2014

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-buy, I-Buy, and F-Sell. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It is off -0.92% so far in 2014. Just a reminder once again that you can follow our allocation on the autotracker contest at the website TSPTALK.com under the screen name KyFan1. It sure feels funny reporting a negative return. As those of you who have been with me a while know, I am not accustomed to that.

The beginning of the new year is a love/hate thing for me. I love the challenge of starting anew, but I hate showing a negative or small return. Here’s to getting this thing on the road! Hopefully with God’s help it won’t be negative for long! Not much new to add, the majority of the economic news was good today and the real trading will start again on Monday. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.

Scott8-)

01/02/14

Good Evening,

The major indices all pulled back in the 1% range today. This action was unlike that of the past 2 years in which the lows for day 1 were the lows for the year. However, this action is more normal for the 1st trading day of the New Year. Throw in the fact that the holiday fell in the middle of the week, which resulted in many traders and analysts being off until Monday and it makes for trading that probably has no bearing on the future market. So why does the market usually go down on the first couple trading days of the year? It goes down largely as a function of traders taking profits in order to defer those taxes to 2014. Also, if 2014 then turns out to be a losing year, the losses for the rest of the year negate the capital gains taxes for the profits that were taken at the beginning of the year. Of course most of you are trading in IRA’s which have no capital gains taxes. That is the reason that you want to keep them that way as long as possible; not to mention the 10% withdrawal penalty that is added if you remove the funds from your IRA before you turn 59 1/2. Anyway, on to today’s trading or should I say profit taking, stocks got off to a weak start for the year, as investors took a step back amid worries about slowing economic growth in China. The Dow fell more than 130 points, or nearly 1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined about 1%. This is the first time markets started the year on a down note since 2008. Investors were in a cautious mood after data showed that China’s factories lost some momentum in December, adding to fears that the world’s second-largest economy may soften in the new year. Economic data in the United States wasn’t all that positive either. Manufacturing activity grew in December, but at a slightly slower pace than the previous month, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s index. Initial jobless claims fell for a second straight week but came in slightly higher than expectations. Trading volume will likely remain light this week as many traders are still away for the holidays. While most stocks were lower Thursday, gold started off on a strong note, rising almost 2%. The precious metal fell 28% in 2013, marking the first down year for gold prices since 2000. As gold prices advanced, shares of Newmont Mining (NEM, Fortune 500) and other gold miners surged, as well as the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). StockTwits traders predicted that after a dismal 2013, this could be gold’s year to shine. “2014 surprise will be $GDX and $GLD,” said Lach14. “Starting today.”

The days trading left us with the following signals: C- Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, and F-Sell. Our allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It closed out the year earning +21.31% in the period since 03/11/13 and more than +36% for the year.
For those of you who have been anxious about the recent gains in the I Fund, it lost an ugly -1.77% today and that’s close to double what the C and S funds lost. There is a reason that we aren’t in the I Fund just yet! So with our posted results lagging a day behind you will see today’s results posted tomorrow. As far as where we go from here, I am really not concerned about today’s pullback. At this point I just consider it a healthy bout of profit taking. Actually, if the truth be known we could use a few more days of it to set us up for a new run. Our equity based charts look great so far with each of them (yes even the I) showing solid buy signals. We will continue to watch the charts and play the action that is in font of us. Eventually we will have to get defensive, but we will know when that time comes based on our charts, not on our emotions. That’s all for tonight! May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott8-)

12/31/13

Good Evening,

It was a nice end of a great year for stocks. Each of our equity based funds were up solidly to close out the year…

 

Stocks: Stellar year ends on a high note

 

 

New Years Eve trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, and F-Sell. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It has earned +20.82% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results:
12/30/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2861 15.7607 23.7795 33.5305 25.5366
$ Change 0.0027 0.0320 -0.0027 0.0208 0.0627
% Change day +0.02% +0.20% -0.01% +0.06% +0.25%
% Change week +0.02% +0.20% -0.01% +0.06% +0.25%
% Change month +0.19% -0.44% +2.13% +2.51% +1.40%
% Change year +1.88% -1.56% +31.92% +37.77% +22.00%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.8059 21.7607 23.411 24.7753 14.0261
$ Change 0.0065 0.0138 0.0172 0.0201 0.0125
% Change day +0.04% +0.06% +0.07% +0.08% +0.09%
% Change week +0.04% +0.06% +0.07% +0.08% +0.09%
% Change month +0.52% +1.09% +1.35% +1.53% +1.71%
% Change year +6.91% +15.84% +19.91% +22.94% +25.86%
Look at today’s chart for the S&P 500 (C-Fund). As you can see we are still setting records! God be praised!

 

It was a great end to a great year. With God’s help, we were able to post gains of well over 35% on the year. We added our allocation to the TSPTALK auto tracker this past March. As you know, it shows a gain of over 20% since that time. We have much to be thankful for. Let’s praise God again!  Someone asked me if I had any predictions for the year. As you know I am not in the business of prognostication. I am a reactive trader, but I will make this prediction. Most of the predictions by the experts that we commonly refer to as talking heads will be wrong. The ones that are right will do so because they are lucky. If you don’t think that is right then look at the ones that were correct last year and see if they were gloriously right again this year. Game, Set and Match. In other words my prediction is that theirs will be wrong. The only one I follow is our Heavenly Father and He has always been right! May he continue to bless your trades. Have a happy New Year and Go SEC!!!
God bless,
Scott

 

12/30/13

Good Evening,

I had a little situation with my garage door this evening. I didn’t get in until 9:30 PM Central time so I will keep this somewhat short. That’s about all there is to talk about anyway. Today was another low volume holiday trading day. Although technically we still have a couple days left for the Santa Rally I think that most of the market players did so well so early in the Santa Rally that they are closing their books and calling it a year. For the most part, it seems that they are just satisfied to close near the highs of the year and not give anything up.

 

Dow posts 51st closing record of 2013

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It has earned +20.82% since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results:
12/30/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2861 15.7607 23.7795 33.5305 25.5366
$ Change 0.0027 0.0320 -0.0027 0.0208 0.0627
% Change day +0.02% +0.20% -0.01% +0.06% +0.25%
% Change week +0.02% +0.20% -0.01% +0.06% +0.25%
% Change month +0.19% -0.44% +2.13% +2.51% +1.40%
% Change year +1.88% -1.56% +31.92% +37.77% +22.00%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.8059 21.7607 23.411 24.7753 14.0261
$ Change 0.0065 0.0138 0.0172 0.0201 0.0125
% Change day +0.04% +0.06% +0.07% +0.08% +0.09%
% Change week +0.04% +0.06% +0.07% +0.08% +0.09%
% Change month +0.52% +1.09% +1.35% +1.53% +1.71%
% Change year +6.91% +15.84% +19.91% +22.94% +25.86%
I know, I know… the I fund has been picking up the pace lately, but it is still a percent or so behind our other equity based funds on the month. We’ll give it a look if it keeps up at its current pace next month. It’s late and I’ve got to go. Let’s see what the last trading day of the year has to bring us. Have a nice evening. May God continue to bless your trades!
 Scott8-)

 

12/27/14

Good Evening,

Money managers started thinking of the end of the year today with a little selling for tax purposes. That will probably be the theme for the rest of the year now. Of course the media will fill up the long days of trading that we have left with experts giving a long stream of inaccurate predictions. The only thing I will pay attention to is my charts. Some years I have attempted to sell and carry a lot of cash into the new year as a defensive precaution, but that has only worked about half the time. The way this market has been behaving for the past three years, it has just been best to read the charts and react to the action that’s in front of me. I am only mentioning the selling strategy in case some of you want to do your own thing. I never claimed to be right 100% of the time. However, when I’m faithful, God has never let me down!

 

Stocks pause at end of strong week

 

 

The weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It has earned +20.84% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results:
12/26/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2826 15.7306 23.7856 33.5351 25.1603
$ Change 0.0018 -0.0029 0.1123 0.0473 0.1000
% Change day +0.01% -0.02% +0.47% +0.14% +0.40%
% Change week +0.04% -0.38% +1.33% +1.37% +1.13%
% Change month +0.16% -0.63% +2.15% +2.52% -0.10%
% Change year +1.86% -1.75% +31.95% +37.79% +20.20%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.7889 21.7063 23.3407 24.6928 13.9717
$ Change 0.0150 0.0461 0.0609 0.0722 0.0459
% Change day +0.09% +0.21% +0.26% +0.29% +0.33%
% Change week +0.26% +0.66% +0.83% +0.95% +1.08%
% Change month +0.42% +0.84% +1.04% +1.19% +1.31%
% Change year +6.80% +15.55% +19.55% +22.53% +25.37%
The I fund is picking up some. If it continues to do well over the coming weeks we will reallocate some funds there when we re-balance our allocation. We’ve had a great year at over 36% for the year and over 20% just since March! There are many years that it is impossible to make 20% in a year.
May God be praised!  That’s all for tonight. Have a great weekend!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

12/26/13

Good Evening,

There are only so many ways that I can invent to describe the current trading. It is low volume with a slightly positive bias.

Typical Holiday trading…

 

Stocks: The gifts keep coming

 

 

The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. It has earned +20.50% in the period since 03/13/11. Here are the latest posted results: 
12/25/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2808 15.7335 23.6733 33.4878 25.0603
$ Change 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
% Change day +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
% Change week +0.03% -0.36% +0.85% +1.23% +0.73%
% Change month +0.15% -0.61% +1.67% +2.38% -0.49%
% Change year +1.84% -1.73% +31.33% +37.60% +19.73%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.7739 21.6602 23.2798 24.6206 13.9258
$ Change 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
% Change day +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
% Change week +0.17% +0.45% +0.57% +0.66% +0.75%
% Change month +0.33% +0.63% +0.78% +0.90% +0.98%
% Change year +6.70% +15.31% +19.24% +22.17% +24.96%
We have only a handful of trading days left until 2013 is over. We will continue to monitor our charts into the new year but will not make any adjustments unless they are required. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
Scott8-)

 

12/24/13

Good Afternoon,

The market closed early today so everybody could get home with their families where they should be. Today’s shortened day of trading was a typical low volume Christmas Eve day of trading. There was a little movement along with a little profit taking on low volume. The reason for this is that most of the traders that stuck around until Christmas Eve won’t return until the new year so they are closing out their books for the year today. Our goal today was to hang on to all or most of our gains from yesterday. Mission accomplished! The S Fund performed poorly, but the C Fund managed a gain to keep our losses minimal on the day. Worth noting for those of you who may be considering our services in the future is that our thrift based system was able to make a small profit again today as we utilize more targeted funds that aren’t available in TSP. The system is always able to outpace TSP for this reason. It doesn’t hurt that we have unlimited trades at our disposal either. Any of you who have recently retired or may be retiring soon that have an interest in investing in this system can find my contact information as the end of this E-Mail. Of course, all my personal funds are invested in this system. Also, we handle IRA’s from private industry as well which can also be invested in the this system…

 

Record rally continues on Wall Street

 

 

The Holiday action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. Our current allocation is 42/C, 58/S. Our allocation has earned +20.04% in the period since 03/11/13 when we first started tracking it on the TSP Talk Auto Tracker. Of course you can view that information under the screen name KyFan1 at the TSPTALK.com site. Here are the latest posted results: 
12/23/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2799 15.7745 23.6016 33.3429 25.0762
$ Change 0.0027 -0.0162 0.1285 0.2613 0.1964
% Change day +0.02% -0.10% +0.55% +0.79% +0.79%
% Change week +0.02% -0.10% +0.55% +0.79% +0.79%
% Change month +0.14% -0.35% +1.36% +1.93% -0.43%
% Change year +1.84% -1.48% +30.93% +37.00% +19.80%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.768 21.6391 23.2498 24.5832 13.9021
$ Change 0.0230 0.0751 0.1019 0.1239 0.0794
% Change day +0.14% +0.35% +0.44% +0.51% +0.57%
% Change week +0.14% +0.35% +0.44% +0.51% +0.57%
% Change month +0.29% +0.53% +0.65% +0.75% +0.81%
% Change year +6.66% +15.19% +19.09% +21.98% +24.75%
I have added a chart of the S-Fund today. I did this so you could see the chart pattern that we call “back filling” that almost always occurs when the stock or fund that is being charted gaps up during a particular session. In other words, it leaves a gap between that day and the previous day. When this takes place the pattern is usually fulfilled when the stock drops back to that level during a subsequent session (usually the next day). When you see this pattern, you can predict with 90% certainty that the stock or fund being charted will drop back to its previous level. Not so much in funds, but when dealing with individual stocks this is helpful as a signal to sell the stock to avoid the subsequent drop. This is normally done in a manner called shorting the stock where the stock is repurchased after it falls to its former level. This a allows an increased number of shares to be purchased with the profits taken during the gap up. This can be done with funds as well. However, it is usually not utilized as funds are normally held as a longer term investment than stocks. The thing for you to remember is when the pattern is fulfilled and the stock or fund being charted returns to its previous level, it usually resumes its march higher from that point forward. That’s the main reason we didn’t panic and sell out of the S-Fund today. This drop was actually a function of going too far too fast, if you will. The S-Fund will resume its profit making ways in the next session or so.  
 
As you can see, the S-Fund completed the pattern by returning to the same trading level that it occupied on Friday the 20th. Well that’s all for today. My prayer is that you all enjoy a wonderful evening with your families. Isn’t it wonderful that God gave us the ultimate gift when he sent His only son to earth to suffer many things for our sins? What He has done for us in the stock market pails comparison to this. May God be praised for this gift and in that, this gift made it possible for us to have everlasting life, a long time after this market ceases to exist. Praise him tonight!! Jesus is Lord!! Have a great Christmas and don’t eat too much!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

12/20/13

Good Evening,

Everything is going as we anticipated! Thank God for guiding our hand.

 

Ho! Ho! Ho! Dow, S&P end at record highs

 

The week’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Sell. Our current allocation is 63/C, 37/S. It has earned +18.32% since 03/11/13 (not including today’s gains). Why do we use the March date? That is the date that we entered our allocation on the Autotracker at TSPTALK.com. This was done in order that you may verify the performance of our allocation. In total, our groups allocation is up more than 30% in the period since 01/01/13. Here are the latest posted results: 
12/19/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2764 15.7614 23.3601 32.6338 24.7476
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0203 -0.0104 -0.1926 0.1970
% Change day +0.01% -0.13% -0.04% -0.59% +0.80%
% Change week +0.04% -0.08% +1.95% +1.45% +2.02%
% Change month +0.12% -0.43% +0.33% -0.23% -1.74%
% Change year +1.81% -1.56% +29.59% +34.09% +18.23%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.7213 21.4876 23.0415 24.3268 13.7387
$ Change 0.0023 0.0119 0.0129 0.0121 0.0093
% Change day +0.01% +0.06% +0.06% +0.05% +0.07%
% Change week +0.40% +1.00% +1.25% +1.43% +1.61%
% Change month +0.01% -0.18% -0.25% -0.31% -0.38%
% Change year +6.37% +14.39% +18.02% +20.71% +23.28%

The I fund had a nice day yesterday but it is still down significantly more on the month than our other equity based funds. I have included the chart of the S-Fund tonight as it secured a buy signal with a positive crossover of the PMO.
You know, for the past three years we have not known when this bull market might end due to the massive amount of liquidity being pumped into the system by the FOMC. And guess what? We still don’t know. All we can do is what we have been doing and that is to stick with the prevailing trend. To fight the trend is a recipe for losses or under-performance. As I have said many times, someday this will come to an end and we will have to play defense, but for now we must rack up as many gains as we can. That’s all for tonight. God bless you all and have a great weekend. Hope you are done with your shopping!
Scott 8-)

PS- Our gift this Christmas Season is that we have a new Grandson on the way! Isn’t God great!!