Blog

12/06/13

Good Evening,

Let today be another lesson to those of you that trade with emotion. This is why technical analysis (our trading style) is superior to other styles of investing. As of yesterday, we had five straight days of negative action. The fund with our largest allocation was within one day of giving us a sell signal (using our most conservative set of indicators). With things so negative why not sell and stem more losses? After all, we had a nice profit right? How many of you went out on your own and did just that??? You have to remember how we got the profit to know the answer to that question. An old adage applies here. You have to know where you’ve been to know where you’re going. Three times during this past year we faced identical circumstances. The market was declining and it seemed as if we’d better sell or we might lose it all. Some of you did sell! Not that sell is a dirty word. In our system it is not. However, our system also demands that you be a disciplined trader. You sell to be sure, but only when you have the signal based on the set of indicators that you are using at the time. What indicators you say? That’s where judgement and skill are applied and only experience will give you that. You can’t gain experience (or money for that matter) if you stay in the G Fund all the time. Remember, time is money and money is time. We stayed in the market at one minute until midnight because our charts said to do so and were rewarded for a fourth time in 2013 for doing so. You must have discipline. If you do not, you will fail!! The final thing that you must have that a lot of traders do not is faith. With out faith and trust in God, I don’t care what system you run, you will not succeed. He is and always has been the true source of our success. Give him the all the praise!

 

Dow soars 200 points on jobs report

 

 

The week’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell.  Our allocation remains set at 63/C, 37/S. It has earned +16.93% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results: 
12/05/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.264 15.7479 23.0254 32.3951 24.4965
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0085 -0.0995 0.0109 -0.0767
% Change day +0.01% -0.05% -0.43% +0.03% -0.31%
% Change week +0.03% -0.52% -1.11% -0.96% -2.73%
% Change month +0.03% -0.52% -1.11% -0.96% -2.73%
% Change year +1.72% -1.64% +27.73% +33.11% +17.03%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.6679 21.342 22.8516 24.1024 13.5979
$ Change -0.0108 -0.0360 -0.0477 -0.0562 -0.0358
% Change day -0.06% -0.17% -0.21% -0.23% -0.26%
% Change week -0.31% -0.85% -1.07% -1.23% -1.40%
% Change month -0.31% -0.85% -1.07% -1.23% -1.40%
% Change year +6.03% +13.61% +17.05% +19.60% +22.02%
Today was a good day because we are still in the game. Now if we can just get that Santa Rally. We’ll continue to pray and watch the charts. Have a great weekend. See you on Monday.
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

12/05/13

Good Evening,

The FED money is ending, QE is tapering, QE is ending. The economy is improving so QE is ending……whatever (note sarcasm). OK, get it over with, let the market drop and we’ll go to cash. So what? We’ve done it before and I’m sure we’ll do it again. Just move us out of market purgatory!! Please, I’ve had enough. I’m tired of getting whipsawed. If we are at the top then let’s drop!!

 

Market losing streak hits five days

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Sell. Our allocation is the same for now at 63/C, 37/S. However, the chart for the C-Fund ended the day on the line between neutral and sell. Should the C-Fund (S&P 500) turn down in the morning we will sell that fund and re-balance our allocation. Our allocation is up 17.24% since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results: 
12/04/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2631 15.7564 23.1249 32.3842 24.5732
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0477 -0.0239 -0.0146 -0.2640
% Change day +0.01% -0.30% -0.10% -0.05% -1.06%
% Change week +0.02% -0.47% -0.68% -1.00% -2.43%
% Change month +0.02% -0.47% -0.68% -1.00% -2.43%
% Change year +1.72% -1.59% +28.29% +33.06% +17.40%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.6787 21.378 22.8993 24.1586 13.6337
$ Change -0.0133 -0.0468 -0.0619 -0.0737 -0.0480
% Change day -0.08% -0.22% -0.27% -0.30% -0.35%
% Change week -0.24% -0.69% -0.87% -0.99% -1.14%
% Change month -0.24% -0.69% -0.87% -0.99% -1.14%
% Change year +6.10% +13.80% +17.29% +19.88% +22.34%

 

The market’s reaction to tomorrow’s job report is pivotal. If the reaction is negative we may be done for the year. We’ll just keep our eye’s on the charts and react to what’s put in front of us. Either way, God has given us another great year! Give him the praise!!!! May He continue to bless your trades. Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

12/04/13

Good Evening,

The market dipped down quite a bit, but managed a strong finish. Worth noting is that the past three sessions all had poor closes. Does this signal a short term change in character?  I sure hope so..

 

Stocks see-saw despite upbeat data

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Neutral. Our allocation remains set at 63/C, 37/S. It has gained +17.33% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results: 
12/03/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2622 15.8041 23.1488 32.3988 24.8372
$ Change 0.0009 0.0123 -0.0729 -0.1375 -0.1714
% Change day +0.01% +0.08% -0.31% -0.42% -0.69%
% Change week +0.02% -0.16% -0.58% -0.95% -1.38%
% Change month +0.02% -0.16% -0.58% -0.95% -1.38%
% Change year +1.71% -1.29% +28.42% +33.12% +18.66%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.692 21.4248 22.9612 24.2323 13.6817
$ Change -0.0126 -0.0482 -0.0660 -0.0805 -0.0523
% Change day -0.08% -0.22% -0.29% -0.33% -0.38%
% Change week -0.16% -0.47% -0.60% -0.69% -0.79%
% Change month -0.16% -0.47% -0.60% -0.69% -0.79%
% Change year +6.18% +14.05% +17.61% +20.24% +22.77%
The charts for the C and S Funds in which we are invested continue to hang in the neutral range just above the sell mark. They could easily generate sell signals with continued downward pressure. The I Fund, which we previously vacated, generated a sell signal today. Since we are not invested in that fund at this time no action is required. That’s all for tonight. Gotta go Christmas shopping. Don’t feel sorry for me though. I did most of it online.  God bless and have a wonderful evening!
Scott8-)

 

12/03/13

Good Evening,

The downward pressure continued on the market again today. The question is will it crack?

 

Stocks: Momentum fading after record run

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. Our current allocation is 
63/C, 37/S. It has gained +17.33% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results: 

12/03/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2622 15.8041 23.1488 32.3988 24.8372
$ Change 0.0009 0.0123 -0.0729 -0.1375 -0.1714
% Change day +0.01% +0.08% -0.31% -0.42% -0.69%
% Change week +0.02% -0.16% -0.58% -0.95% -1.38%
% Change month +0.02% -0.16% -0.58% -0.95% -1.38%
% Change year +1.71% -1.29% +28.42% +33.12% +18.66%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.692 21.4248 22.9612 24.2323 13.6817
$ Change -0.0126 -0.0482 -0.0660 -0.0805 -0.0523
% Change day -0.08% -0.22% -0.29% -0.33% -0.38%
% Change week -0.16% -0.47% -0.60% -0.69% -0.79%
% Change month -0.16% -0.47% -0.60% -0.69% -0.79%
% Change year +6.18% +14.05% +17.61% +20.24% +22.77%
No severe damage yet, but the pressure is starting to build. Here’s today’s chart for the C-Fund. I always use it as the S&P 500 is fairly representative of most of the other charts.  
Price broke down below the short-term bearish ascending wedge. The expected resolution of an ascending wedge pattern is a breakdown, which we now have. So as far as the technical expectation of the pattern, it has been met. However, I am of the opinion there is more decline to come based on a lot of supporting evidence.
This reminds me of the last decline we experience in early November. The pressure is building and the charts are deteriorating. Will it finally crack this time?  I think if not now, then after New Years. My caution level is high. If the signals come I will sell even if I risk losing the gains of a Santa Rally. Perhaps tomorrow will give us yet another turn around. That’s what I’m hoping for! That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott8-)

 

12/02/13

Good Evening,

Statistically speaking, the Monday after Thanksgiving has a negative bias. True to form today followed the pattern…

 

Stocks slip on weak Black Friday sales

 

 

The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 63/C, 37/S. Our allocation has gained +18.18% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results:
11/29/13  
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2597 15.8301 23.2839 32.7103 25.1848
$ Change 0.0026 0.0014 -0.0173 -0.0092 0.1557
% Change day +0.02% +0.01% -0.07% -0.03% +0.62%
% Change week +0.05% +0.07% +0.10% +0.74% +0.83%
% Change month +0.18% -0.35% +3.05% +2.49% +0.75%
% Change year +1.69% -1.13% +29.17% +34.40% +20.32%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.7194 21.5256 23.0995 24.4014 13.7909
$ Change 0.0058 0.0176 0.0222 0.0256 0.0172
% Change day +0.03% +0.08% +0.10% +0.10% +0.12%
% Change week +0.11% +0.25% +0.31% +0.35% +0.40%
% Change month +0.58% +1.24% +1.54% +1.74% +1.93%
% Change year +6.35% +14.59% +18.32% +21.08% +23.75%
The bottom line is that we are sitting at or near the top of an extended market that up to date has refused to break down. My thought is that this resilience is due to the FED’s quantitative easing program. It appears that a growing anxiety over the end of this program coupled with the added anxiety of being on top of an extended market is putting a constant drag on the market and probably will do so until it ultimately breaks down for a real correction, if not for even more. Our strategy remains to take advantage of whatever holiday push that we get. All that said, caution is warranted. Should we, at any point in this process, get sell signals we will not hesitate to sell. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott8-)