10/11/2022

Good Morning, Last week about this time many investors were thinking the market had finally bottomed for good. The only problem was nothing had changed. Well you know what? It still hasn’t changed and if anything it has deteriorated. There are multiple issues that are destabilizing the market right now. The unknown effects of quantitative tightening (we’ve never experienced this before). The War in the Ukraine is escalating. Covid is making yet another comeback in China choking ...

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10/04/2022

Good Morning, It’s a battle between market perception and reality. While the market is most often right, I’m not so sure about this time. After a horrendous September which by the grace of God we were able to sidestep, the market began to rally yesterday and continues strongly today. The markets perception is that world banks will begin to pivot from their hawkish policies to control inflation sooner than they said they would, but will they? Is that actually the ...

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09/27/2022

Good Morning, Are we at the bottom? I’ve been getting asked that question a lot this week. While I would guess that it’s probably OK to put your money back in the market now it would be just that, a guess. If you are using an investment strategy such as averaging in then I would say definitely that doing a little nibbling here would be acceptable. However, it’s just too early to tell if we are at the bottom yet ...

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09/20/2022

Good Evening, As it has been for the last year plus so it is. It’s all about inflation and interest rates and everything that effects those two things. The most recent inputs to the equation are a hot Consumer Price index Report and a poor earnings report by Fed Ex. Not that these reports were not serious all on their own merit but they were even more so given that they were some of the last data that the Fed ...

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09/13/2022

Good Morning, Just when you thought it was safe to go in the water again…….. This morning we got another hot inflation report demonstrating that impulsive traders were perhaps a little overzealous with their ‘goldilocks’ inflation report theory. They bet heavily that inflation had moderated and and as a result so would the Fed. They bet wrong!! My what a difference a week makes. Today all those geniuses are leaning the wrong way and make no mistake they are going ...

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09/06/2022

Good Day, The market continues to behave as we anticipated that it would. It responds with big swings to each news release concerning inflation or anything related to it. The theme has been and continues to be all things related to inflation. This especially includes the Feds efforts to control it through interest rate increases. How much will they raise rates vs how much investors anticipate that they should raise rates. Does a lesser increase mean that they see inflation ...

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*****Interfund Transfer*****

Good Morning, It’s time to adjust our allocation. The new allocation is 100/G. Please remember that this is the percentage of money that we have invested in each fund, not the money that is taken from your check and deposited into thrift. That deposit should always be 100% G Fund. That automatically protects your deposit in the event that it is made on a bad day for the market. The funds that accumulate in the G Fund are always picked up when ...

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08/30/2022

Good Day, Nothing has really changed this week. Perhaps investor perception has changed which would account for the wild swings in stock prices that continue to occur, but I won’t opine further on that at this time. The perception of current news by market players is most if not all of what determines how the market trades….. The important thing as always is to realize what is occurring. Why is nice but what is essential! What is happening now is ...

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08/23/22

Good Afternoon, When I describe a market like this I like to use the old adage “A lot of smoke and no fire”. This is not a market where you should expect to make any money. So why are you invested then Scott??? First let me say as I always do that no one knows the future. While you may forecast some outcomes you will never be able to anticipate everything the market will throw at you. It is just ...

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08/16/2022

Good Afternoon, The latest catalyst to spur this rally was last weeks better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) reports showing inflation slowing just a bit. These reports led investors to think that the rate of inflation might finally be peeking. This in turn led to optimism that the Fed might not have to be as aggressive with interest rate increases as they indicated in the last published Fed minutes. We will see about that. ...

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